Friday 28 March 2014

Quarter One Local By-Election Results 2014

Party
Number of candidates
Total vote
%
+/- Q4
Average/
contest
+/- Q4
+/- Seats
Conservative
43
18,344
 28.6%
 +8.3%
     427
    +78
   -5
Labour
37
20,005
 31.2%
 -3.3%
     541
   -136
    0
LibDem
32
  6,459
 10.1%
 -0.9%
     202
     -45
  +3
UKIP
31
  8,583
 13.4%
 +0.5%
     277
    +20
  +1
SNP*
  3
  2,524
   3.9%
 -1.9%
     841
   -186
    0
Plaid Cymru**
  2
  1,169
   1.8%
  -0.5%
     585
  +330
    0
Green
14
  1,495
   2.3%
 +1.5%
     107
    +15
    0
BNP
  0
    
   
  -0.3%
       
     -70
    0
TUSC
  3
     348
   0.5%
 +0.0%
     116
    +72
    0
Independent***
15
  4,109
   6.4%
  -0.7%
     274
    +30
  +1
Other****
  6
 1,048
   1.6%
  -2.9%
     175
      +6
    0

*There were three by-elections in Scotland.
**There were two by-elections in Wales, two of which were contested by Plaid Cymru.
***There were four independent clashes this quarter.
****There were no 'other' clashes in the same contest.

Overall 64,064 votes were cast over 43 individual local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. Fractions are rounded to one decimal place for percentages, and the nearest whole number for averages. You can compare these with Quarter Four 2013's results here.

After being in the doldrums for a wee while, the Tory vote total picked up this quarter while Labour's declined markedly. It doesn't take an eagle-eye to note this narrowing of the latter's lead mirrors recent polling. Or does it? Average performance has closed between the two parties but a gulf still separates them. Not time for the bubbly yet, Conservative folk. Again the quarter's actual and average votes indicates some stabilisation of the LibDem and UKIP support - their fluctuation is far less than that experienced by the big parties. Then again, the Tories and Labour tend to be more affected by the preponderance of minor parties than British politics' second division.

Down in the equivalent of the Vauxhall League, or whatever it's called these days, the BNP haven't been in by-election action since December. Hardly the vibes one might get from an organisation gearing up for a decent showing in the European elections. They're done and are not likely to come back for quite some time, especially as UKIP have cornered the "are you thinking what we're thinking?" racism of that particular electorate.

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