Sunday 28 June 2015

Quarter Two Local By-Election Results 2015

Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- Q1
Average/
contest
+/- Q1
+/-
Seats
Conservative
90
134,775
  35.7%
 +11.3%
  1,498
 +1,017
  +11
Labour
90
120,835
  32.0%
   -0.3%
  1,343
    +628
    -4
LibDem
58
  33,895
    9.0%
  +3.5%
    584
    +426
    -1
UKIP
59
  35,169
    9.3%
  +0.4%
    596
    +339
    -5
Green
45
  18,794
    5.0%
  +0.0%
    418
    +230
    -1
SNP*
  3
  12,197
    3.2%
 -12.3%
 4,066
 +2,619
   +1
PC**
  6
    3,339
    0.9%
   -0.4%
    557
    +397
    -1
TUSC
  7
       506
    0.1%
  +0.1%
      72
      +72
    0
Ind***
25
  13,036
    3.5%
   -0.5%
     521
    +333
    0
Other****
12
    5,224
    1.4%
   -1.5%
     435
        -7
    0

* There were three by-elections in Scotland.
** There were nine by-elections in Wales.
*** There were three independent clash this quarter.
**** 'Other' this quarter were Mebyon Kernow (340 & 180 votes), SPGB (42), Christian Peoples (99), All Peoples Party (25), and Community Action (1,870), Llais Gwynedd (148), Independent Community and Health Concern (404, 378, 326), Tower Hamlets First (1,472), and Something New (40)

377,770 votes were cast over 102 individual local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. Fractions are rounded to one decimal place for percentages, and the nearest whole number for averages. You can compare these with Quarter One 2015's results here.

Of course, the figures for this quarter are inflated by the small matter of the general election taking place on the same day as many by-elections. Nevertheless, it's the percentage that is most interesting - the gap between Labour and the Tories over the quarter is not as emphatic as one might suppose. Also, as you might expect the third parties get a squeeze, with the exception of the Greens and SNP. The margin between UKIP and the LibDems is narrowing too, a gap I think will continue to get thinner as kipper mania goes into slumber.

Next quarter, however, is going to be messy. A handful of SNP councillors were voted in as MPs in May, so there will be a disproportionate number of Scottish by-elections and don't be too shocked if they win a plurality of votes in the July polls.

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