Saturday 27 February 2016

Local Council By-Elections February 2016

Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
Jan
Average/
contest
+/-  Jan
+/-
Seats
Conservative
   21
 8,856
  28.5%
 +3.0%
    422
    +94
    -3
Labour
   18
 9,670
  31.1%
  -7.0%
    537
     -14
     0
LibDem
   15
 4,961
  16.0%
 +3.7%
    331
   +128
   +1
UKIP
   13
 3,256
  10.5%
 +3.6%
    250
    +91
     0
Green
   11
 1,428
    4.6%
 +1.4%
    133
    +59
   +1
SNP*
   1
 1,113
    3.9%
  -5.5%
   1,113
    +24
   +1
PC**
   0
     
   
  
   
   
     0
TUSC
   0
    
   
      
    
     0
Ind***
   8
 1,788
    5.8%
 +1.1%
   223
   +101
     0
Other****
   1
    9
    0.0%
 -0.4%
     9
    -16
     0

* There was one by-election in Scotland
** There was one by-elections in Wales
*** There was one Independent clash
**** Others this month consisted of the Pirate Party (nine votes)

Overall, 31,081 votes were cast over 21 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Six council seats changed hands in total. For comparison with January's results, see here.

That's the second month on the trot Labour have secured a plurality of by-election votes, though declining percentages and vote shares demonstrates it's been a February of relative retreat. It also has to be said that since Jeremy won the Labour leadership election the party has yet to finish a month with a net increase in councillors. At least now we're back into "normal" performance territory, though on this occasion the good vote comes from strong showings in areas where Labour is already strong. And - again - for us to not contest three by-elections when we're the largest party by a country mile simply isn't acceptable.

Quite solid performances from the Tories, unfortunately. More interesting are the LibDems where, yet again, actual votes have them significantly outperforming expectations suggested by the polls. Even though UKIP did better this month, they're nowhere near their 2013/14 peak. It does appear that the yellows have clawed some of their 'none of the above' vote back. Also, surprisingly, the Green vote is yet to be obliterated by Labour's new leader, and its persistence around the 3-4% level suggests that not going to happen any time soon.

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