Friday 30 September 2016

Quarter Three Local By-Election Results 2016

Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
Q2
Average/
contest
+/-  
Q2
+/-
Seats
Conservative
   82
34,774
  28.0%
  -1.4%
    424
  -294
   -8
Labour
   73
35,883
  28.9%
  -5.8%
    492
  -392
   -3
LibDem
   65
22,388
  18.0%
 +7.1%
    344
    -31
 +16
UKIP
   52
11,562
    9.3%
  -0.7%
    222
  -163
   -2
Green
   33
 4,632
    3.7%
  -2.3%
    140
  -162
    0
SNP*
    4
 4,813
    3.9%
 +1.5%
  1,203
  -747
   -1
PC**
    5
 1,421
    1.1%
 +0.9%
    115
 +115
  +1
TUSC
    0
    
   

    
   
    
Ind***
   30
 5,957
    4.8%
  -0.6%
    199
  -154
   -5
Other****
   18
 2,711
    2.2%
 +1.6%
    151
   +45
  +2

* There were four by-elections in Scotland
** There were seven by-elections in Wales
*** There were four Independent clashes
**** Others this quarter were Yorkshire First (91), People Before Profit (129), Justice and Anti-Corruption (41), Christian Alliance (29), Mebyon Kernow (161) (111), Socialist Labour Party (131), SDP (15), United Thanet (44), North East Party (15), Farnham Residents' Assoc (754) (386) (356), English Democrats (24), MIF (148), British Peoples Party (6), People First (64), and the Communist Party of Britain (86)

Overall, 124,141 votes were cast over 85 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 29 council seats changed hands. For comparison see Quarter Two's results here.

The first full quarter since the Brexit vote and what do we see? Stasis from UKIP and a surge for the pro-EU LibDems, with a net gain of 16 councillors. Coincidence? Yes and no. As a party, it is in ruder health than the immediate aftermath of the general election. It's undergone a few mini (by Labour's standards) member surges and is standing more widely than when it was in government, so an element of its support are those who didn't necessarily have the opportunity to vote for them previously. On the other hand, it is reasonable to assume there are some die-hards who are casting their vote to protest Brexit, though the rising support for LibDems in by-elections can be traced back to May 2015.

Meanwhile, not much is separating the main parties, with Labour having a slight edge. Can the logjam be broken and swing one way or the other any time soon?

Local Council By-Elections September 2016

Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
Aug
Average/
contest
+/-  
Aug
+/-
Seats
Conservative
   31
13,829
  29.7%
 +0.9%
       446
     -65
    -5
Labour
   30
12,512
  26.9%
  -3.0%
       417
   -281
    -1
LibDem
   25
10,142
  21.8%
+13.1%
       406
  +202
   +8
UKIP
   25
  5,276
  11.3%
 +1.0%
       211
     -95
    -1
Green
   14
  1,242
    2.7%
 +0.5%
         89
     -13
     0
SNP*
    1
  1,261
    2.7%
  -6.8%
    1,261
    +77
    -1
PC**
    2
     378
    0.8%
 +0.8%
       189
  +189
   +1
TUSC
    0
     
   
 
     
    
     0
Ind***
    6
  1,610
    3.5%
  -1.9%
       268
    +16
    -1
Other****
    4
     329
    0.7%
  -0.5%
         82
   -133
     0


* There was one by-election in Scotland
** There were three by-elections in Wales
*** There was one Independent clash
**** Others this month consisted of Mebyon Kernow (111), MIF (148), British Peoples Party (6), People First (64)

Overall, 46,579 votes were cast over 32 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. The Conservatives won 10 contests, Labour nine, LibDems 10, UKIP one, Plaid Cymru one, and Independents one. Conservatives and an Independent successfully defended a seat apiece by a safe margin (500+ votes), while 13 council seats changed hands in total. For comparison with Auguest's results, see here.

It was shaping up to be a dismal month for Labour, with the party losing three seats to the LibDems and on to the Tories, but something was salvaged by taking two back from the Conservatives and one from the SNP (!). It just kept getting worse for the Tories and they seemed particularly vulnerable to the yellow by-election surge, with the Libs seemingly coming from nowhere in a number of seats and taking them out. Can't say there will be many tears shed in my house about the blue team's performance though, annoyingly, they came out on top of the utterly meaningless by-election popular vote.

Meanwhile, as the LibDems surge in defiance of the polls, UKIP's under performance continues. 11.3% is certainly nothing for a minor party to be ashamed of, but considering how two years ago they were pulling in numbers like the Libs are now (though not the same numbers of seats, it has to be said), it's not looking great for them. Nor for the thesis they're about to displace Labour all across the north.